April 16, 2025
Real Estate News
The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) has downgraded its forecast for national home sales in 2025, citing persistent concerns over tariffs and rising interest rates. CREA now expects 482,673 residential transactions next year—essentially unchanged from 2024—down sharply from the 8.6 percent increase it projected in January.
Sales Dip to Levels Not Seen Since 2009
In March, national home sales fell 9.3 percent compared with the same month last year, marking the weakest March performance since 2009. On a seasonally adjusted basis, sales were 4.8 percent lower than in February. Overall, transactions have declined about 20 percent since peaking last November.
“Tariff uncertainty has shifted the outlook from a clear rebound to treading water,” said CREA senior economist Shaun Cathcart.
Prices Hold Steady, Regional Variations Expected
Despite the drop in sales, the national average home price rose 0.3 percent in March versus February, though it remains 3.7 percent below year‑ago levels. CREA now forecasts a slight 0.3 percent decrease in the 2025 average price to $687,898—roughly $30,000 less than its January estimate.
Provinces will see different trends: British Columbia and Ontario are projected to experience small price declines, while other regions may see gains of 3 percent to 5 percent.
Inventory Rises as Sales Slow
New listings increased 3 percent from February to March. However, because sales have slowed, the sales‑to‑new‑listing ratio fell to 45.9 percent—the lowest level for this measure since February 2009.
Buyer Behavior and Market Dynamics
Mortgage professional Katy Mackenzie of The Mortgage Group in Vancouver notes that many buyers are pausing their searches amid uncertainty.
She points out that lower prices can benefit first‑time buyers by reducing mortgage sizes, but sellers—especially those looking to downsize—may face tough decisions as home‑equity values dip.
Mackenzie also observes a split market: well‑priced, in‑demand properties still attract multiple offers, while others allow room for negotiation. Investors may find opportunities to purchase at discounted prices.
Planning for the Long Term
In a market marked by volatility, experts stress the importance of long‑term planning. Buyers and investors should assess affordability not just today but over a three‑ to five‑year horizon, accounting for potential life changes and interest‑rate shifts.
Implications for Rental Investors
For those considering rental properties, a slower sales market can translate into steadier tenant demand and more negotiation leverage on acquisition prices. Monitoring regional trends and working with experienced property managers can help investors navigate these changing conditions.
Source: The Globe and Mail
