May 26, 2022
Market Trends
RYPM
A “frothy” market exists when the price of an asset —
housing, in this case — becomes detached from its underlying value as demand
drives prices to unsustainable levels. Froth tends to precede a market bubble,
which may eventually burst.
Robert Kavcic, Senior Economist at BMO Capital Markets, says
froth is one of the driving factors behind Canada’s surging home prices.
In a May 20 publication, Kavcic writes that home prices have
grown at about 3% per year since the early 1980s, “roughly reflecting”
inflation, wage growth, and falling interest rates.
But even as inflation reaches a 30-year high, home prices
have surged by more than a third in just two years, “clearly stretching” beyond
the growth trend, he noted.
As of Q1 2022, when Kavcic believes the market peaked, home
prices sat 38% above the trend, which is “the widest deviation in the past 40
years.”
In Toronto, home prices have risen 41.2% above trend. In the
exurbs—one to two hours outside the city—they’ve risen by 76.3%. Cottage
country has seen a similar surge at 63%.
“The most froth has accumulated in the suburbs and exurbs of
Toronto,” he wrote.
“Other markets, such as Vancouver, Montreal, and Atlantic
Canada are frothy, but not to the extent of Southern Ontario.”
However, as interest rates rise, Kavcic believes the froth
could dissolve, bringing corrections to the housing market. The Bank of Canada
has already hiked interest rates by 75 basis points in 2022 and Kavcic expects
another increase of 125 basis points by year-end.
“Froth is coming out of home prices, just as it is across a
number of other asset classes that were boosted by excessively stimulative
policy,” Kavcic wrote.
“While a much cooler housing market will weigh on economic
growth, we believe that this will be largely an asset-price phenomenon, with
underlying fundamentals eventually setting a floor, and the financial system
well protected.”
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